Buy or Lease Math

Remember that the high-end properties are immune?

Buy: $7,850,000 @ 8% jumbo loan = $52,333 per month in interest costs.
Lease: $24,500 per month.

Granted, rich people have money to throw away; but, remember, people who got rich the old fashioned way, did so by hoarding money, not throwing it away.

No mortgage interest deduction over $1 million.

Randolph Duke, dress designer to the stars, has listed his prize-winning Hollywood Hills home at $7.85 million.

The modern home, designed by XTEN Architecture, won the AIA award for best residential design in 2007 and was recently featured on the cover of Architectural Digest. It is also for lease at $24,500 a month

Courtesy of the LA Times

How does your SFR stack up to the median?

Some people have claimed that better neighborhoods will be "insulated" from prices drops.

I believe that

1) Prices will go back to 2000 nominal levels, or perhaps below 2000 if there is an overshoot. If a neighborhood holds-on better than one with more foreclosures, then I expect a period of stagnation for the better area while the other neighborhoods slowly rise.

2) Everything is interconnected so if one neighborhood goes down, then other neighborhoods will, in time, go down as well, because of the principle of substitution.

I went back to 1998 and 1999 so see how each neighborhood's median was in relation to the County median. The historic proportions between neighborhoods are what's important.

For example Carmel Valley was about 2.2 times the median. But in December 2008, Carmel Valley's median was $1,007,000 or about 3 times the median of $332,500. That "premium" will not hold the test of time. Either, the County median will rise or the Carmel Valley median will drop. I'm betting on the latter.

Click on the picture below for a view of the SFR data. I'll post the condo data later.




How does your neighborhood stack up?

The data was obtained from the San Diego Union Tribune

Electra #1701

Some people claim that Electra is the best building in all of San Diego.

The flippers there are going underwater, one by one and Bosa is lowering prices and putting pressure on the flippers.

Let's look at

MLS-090009481 700 W E St 1701 San_Diego Ca 92101

Purchased for $1,039,400 on 01/01/08
Immediately listed at $1,160,000. Are you laughing yet?
Now listed for $929,500. INCLUDING all the ugly furniture.

$109,900 loss, not including carrying costs and transaction costs.

Jill Sellers Gets NOD

Jill Sellers, a well-known agent in La Jolla/Pacific Beach got an NOD on her investment condo in La Jolla. The tax records do not show a $7000 Homeowner's Exemption on that property.


7811 Eads Ave 112 La Jolla CA 92037
Purchased 03/26/2006 for $780,000

NOD in the amount of $585,000, probably, the first trust deed.
I don't know if there is a 2nd trust deed.

Here are the comps:

MLS-080051983-7811_Eads_Ave_208_La_Jolla_Ca_92037 for $610,000.


MLS-076066732-7811_Eads_Ave_110_La_Jolla_Ca_92037 for $549,995.

Let's watch this condo and see what the future brings for this Realtor and her other investment properties, which I shall feature in other posts.

Again, thanks to jpinpb for the information.

Why I Post Full Names

Transactions records are public records so that the whole world knows who bought what. That prevents fraud and is in the public interest. That is why we have a County Recorder in every locality in America.

I will not post the names of private citizens.

I will, however, post the names of "public figures" in real estate or financial management.

A public figure would be a person who is quoted in newspapers and advertises himself or herself as an expert or insider of the market. A person' whose name is plastered all over the Internet, billboards, newspapers, or on note-pads in every house in the neighborhood. A real estate agent with bench ads in her community and whose name is easily recognizable is a public figure.

Those experts make money of their notoriety so they should be called to account when they give bad advice, or lose their houses themselves.

- Realtors. I understand that they are near the bottom of the pyramid in terms of the financial fraud that besets our country. But Realtors are the public face of the real estate industry in which millions of homeowners have lost their entire life savings.

- Financial advisers.

- Other so-called real estate experts such as economists, authors, business people, developers (eg Alan Gin, Alan Nevin, et al)

- Real Estate industry executives (Cary Burch, et al)

As a patient, you are entitled to know the death rate statistics of a surgeon or a hospital before your submit to the scalpel. The same principle should apply in real estate and finance.

Let me know what you think.

Carmel Valley Below 2003 Brand New Price

1) Some people have claimed that Carmel Valley is immune from price falls and that places like Mira Mesa, Temecula and Santee would suffer but 92130 would hold near peak prices.

2) Those same folks have claimed that Mira Mesa has "support" at 2003 prices.

3) Other have claimed that if a house was not even built yet, then how can prices drop below that level?

So what if Carmel Valley drops to 2003 prices? Does that mean that the new support for Mira Mesa is now 2001 prices?

Remember everything is interconnected... one domino falls and the others soon follow.

Let's look at one example here:

MLS-080079803 13211 Petunia Way San Diego Ca 92130
- Purchased 07/18/2003 587,915
- Foreclosed by mortgage back security fund A B F C TRUST 2006-O P T 2 (do you understand the gibberish?)

- Resold for 02/03/2099 for $575,000

This was the principal residence of the person who was foreclosed upon. So much for people eating Ramen noodles to hold on to their American Dream.

That person would have been better-off renting and saving money.

But I guess she preferred the "advantages" of homeownership that included:
- throwing away the downpayment
- throwing away the ownership premiums (amounts over and above rent)
- throwing away all the home improvement such as landscaping which do not come in new houses.
- throwing away her good credit

Had she rented, and saved money she would not have a nice stash of money to weather the financial crisis and then purchase a beautiful house at discount prices.

Thanks to jpinpb for the lead. :)

Be Careful What You Write

I agree. But the truth will set you free.

Apparently, OCrenter decided to discontinue his blogging because of threats of lawsuit.

Here's what OCrenter was facing:

Cary Burch V. OCrenter

Chuck at http://www.socalbubble.com was nice enough to replicate the information. Chuck called the bluff and he prevailed.

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Here's an interesting blog entry at the LA Times about how bloggers discover the truth that journalists miss in their own stories because they are sloppy.

Here is more information on the unsuccessful lawsuit against implode-o-meter

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If you want to sue me , by all means, feel free to:

1) Spend your money on a lawyer to get a court order to compel Google and Microsoft to reveal my IP address. You will need to deal with the Google and Microsoft lawyers.

Even if you get a court order, you will need to pay Google and Microsoft's cost to provide the information that you seek. I hear that software engineers can afford to buy nice houses in Silicon Valley, Seattle and also San Diego. So it will cost a pretty penny to send them on a fishing expedition.

I myself, as the blogger, cannot even view the IP address of the people who post on my blog.

2) Spend more money to compel the ISP to match the IP address to the account owner.

3) Spend yet more money to identify me. BTW, I use an open WiFi connection.

4) Then spend more money to initiate the lawsuit.

I'm sure that you have enough money to feed the lawyers. Plus you'll be stimulating the economy.

Breezy Downtown

Goingup, a poster on another blog keeps on pointing to the downtown data provided by Lew Breeze, a local Realtor.

First, Breeze's data is all junk, in my opinion.

Second, he is hardly anyone that you can trust since he claimed that "downtown buyers are actually buying". Duh! So much for analysis.

He's also the type that would claim that superior properties are immune. So, OK, lets examine a superior property.

Lew Breeze bought at Electra


MLS-086028355 700 W E St 1905 San_Diego Ca 92101
2/2
1161 sf
$581 PPSF

Purchase price $674,400 04/15/2008
Listed price $674,500 or a whopping $500 profit which, in reality is thousands lost if you consider carrying and transaction costs.

The property is bleeding money each month but it was removed for "when the market rebounds."

I will continue to monitor this condo to see what it eventually sells for.

Mr. Breeze owns other condos Downtown. Stay tuned for future updates such as a monster tax lien that was filed by the IRS.

Frequently Asked Questions About This Blog

I feel that there is a lot of misinformation about real estate.

1) The principle of public notice is essential to real estate.
Back in the days of early America, when we lived in villages and small towns, everyone knew who owned what. Public information was discussed on the town square.

Without public notice, real estate would be rife with fraud. That's why we have a County Recorder.

2) Real estate sites and other Realtor sites have the ulterior motive to generate sales.

a) Realtors will they you that they care, so they will try to present data in such as way that, if you're a buyer, you'll feel "protected" in buying through them. In reality, Realtors only care about making a sale.

b) Unlike stockbrokers who are more tightly regulated, Realtors cannot be successfully sued for giving bad advice and leading you down the path to bankruptcy. You're on your own, so do your research and use a discount broker.


3) SDlookup has been censoring my posts which I think is not cool.
It's a private website and they can be as arbitrary as they wish, but I think that their censorship is not in keeping up with the spirit of bringing transparancy to the market place.

For example, they don't want you to point out that Realtors flippers are in trouble, even if the name of Realtor, which is public information, is not disclosed.

Knowing the properties now in trouble, but not yet on the market, will give you a prescient insight into the direction of real estate prices.

4) I want to share my observation with my friends.
Because I'm a nice guy and I want my friend to learn what I've learned.

5) I link to SDlookup but do I recommend them?

a) I use SDLookup because it has a great database of Downtown condo which I like to follow.

b) SDLookup also allows you to view old MLS listings after the house has been sold. If they every take away this feature, I'll link to Redfin because I don't like their censorship.

c) But I don't know Bridget Fanning and I don't recommend her. By that I mean that I'm neutral to her. I believe that she doesn't own the site but is simply and advertiser on the site.
I've been using SDlookup since 2006 and at the beginning, Bridget would respond to post in a salesman's kinda of way -- something like "the building is nice, let me know if I can be of assistance".

d) SDlookup doesn't update "sold" data unless it's from the MLS. If that remains this way, then SDLookup's data will soon become stale as there are many transactions that occur outside the MLS (developer sales).

6) What Realtor do I recommend?

a) I don't think it's time to buy so I don't recommend anyone.

b) If you are stubborn and itching to buy, I think it's best to go use a discount broker who will rebate the commission to you. Do your own research and negotiate a good deal on commissions. If you buy from a builder, drive a hard bargain yourself or be prepared to walk. They need you more than you need them.

c) I like Redfin.com and they have a great database also. If you only search for houses or condos outside of downtown, they are a great site also.

d) I don't like Realtors who are fake. Some Realtors will agree that prices will generally come down, but the house they sell you is "protected" because they sold it to you. Yeah, right! Only in your dreams!!

I would love to see a database of Realtors' transactions and look at the houses that are now underwater, in distress or already foreclosed. I understand that the NC Times built such a database for a series of articles that they are writing.

7) If you are not happy with my blog.
Read this post.

I'll add more items are they come to mind.

George Chamberlain Defaulted on Property Taxes

Shameless, "Respected financial journalist George Chamberlin, Executive Editor for The Daily Transcript, Money Advisor for NBC 7/39 and host of “Money in the Morning” on KOGO radio", doesn't pay his taxes.

This is hardly a mistake or being forgetful.

Other bloggers have pointed it out, but, 2 months later, the taxes remain unpaid.

There is a $7000 homeowners exemption on the house so it's presumably Mr. Chamberlain's principal residence and not a rental investment.

I'm sure some people relied on his advice and bought at Del Sur. Of course, Del Sur is now being hit by foreclosures and distress sales (in addition to suffering from extremely high Mello Roos taxes). So be careful who you take your real estate advice from.

2432 Links Way Vista CA 92081
Purchased 08/10/2005 $565,000
Now tax defaulted in the amount of $2,488.87

Protecting The Financial Future

Here is a how Sharon
Torelli, a long term care agent plans to protect the financial future.

She says "It is my goal to help families and individuals make well-informed choices when it comes to protecting their financial future."

She buys a condo at Alta.

575 6th Ave 1406 San Diego Ca 92101

08/08/2007 Purchased for $886,081
Now listed for $875,000

$10,930.59 in defaulted taxes.

How much more wherewithal do you expect this seller to have?